The China Mail - Iran's Ayatollahs the next to Fall?

USD -
AED 3.673035
AFN 71.323752
ALL 89.53094
AMD 391.220403
ANG 1.790208
AOA 916.000367
ARS 1072.780296
AUD 1.655081
AWG 1.8
AZN 1.70397
BAM 1.766685
BBD 2.011533
BDT 121.061023
BGN 1.786617
BHD 0.376959
BIF 2961.474188
BMD 1
BND 1.332099
BOB 6.885493
BRL 5.846041
BSD 0.996193
BTN 84.992526
BWP 13.874477
BYN 3.260694
BYR 19600
BZD 2.001147
CAD 1.42285
CDF 2873.000362
CHF 0.861312
CLF 0.025108
CLP 963.503912
CNY 7.28155
CNH 7.295041
COP 4213.53
CRC 503.907996
CUC 1
CUP 26.5
CVE 99.605696
CZK 23.045604
DJF 177.720393
DKK 6.808204
DOP 62.907224
DZD 133.546862
EGP 50.555986
ERN 15
ETB 131.300523
EUR 0.91245
FJD 2.314904
FKP 0.762682
GBP 0.776096
GEL 2.750391
GGP 0.762682
GHS 15.444933
GIP 0.762682
GMD 71.503851
GNF 8622.916761
GTQ 7.690049
GYD 208.470909
HKD 7.77465
HNL 25.487566
HRK 6.878104
HTG 130.352909
HUF 370.410388
IDR 16745
ILS 3.74336
IMP 0.762682
INR 85.53285
IQD 1305.312033
IRR 42100.000352
ISK 132.170386
JEP 0.762682
JMD 157.104991
JOD 0.708904
JPY 146.97504
KES 129.250385
KGS 86.768804
KHR 3988.349252
KMF 450.503794
KPW 899.928114
KRW 1459.510383
KWD 0.30779
KYD 0.830341
KZT 505.20544
LAK 21581.388627
LBP 89275.06515
LKR 295.434118
LRD 199.25846
LSL 18.999968
LTL 2.95274
LVL 0.60489
LYD 4.818396
MAD 9.490092
MDL 17.606012
MGA 4619.406928
MKD 56.151733
MMK 2099.545327
MNT 3504.730669
MOP 7.976641
MRU 39.72565
MUR 44.670378
MVR 15.403739
MWK 1727.378227
MXN 20.436704
MYR 4.437039
MZN 63.910377
NAD 19.000827
NGN 1532.820377
NIO 36.665011
NOK 10.768404
NPR 135.979445
NZD 1.786991
OMR 0.384617
PAB 0.996508
PEN 3.661278
PGK 4.111636
PHP 57.385038
PKR 279.668989
PLN 3.890384
PYG 7986.705382
QAR 3.6322
RON 4.542038
RSD 106.939038
RUB 84.443694
RWF 1435.583432
SAR 3.752392
SBD 8.316332
SCR 14.336679
SDG 600.503676
SEK 9.992304
SGD 1.345704
SHP 0.785843
SLE 22.750371
SLL 20969.501083
SOS 569.320455
SRD 36.646504
STD 20697.981008
SVC 8.718942
SYP 13001.416834
SZL 19.003238
THB 34.403649
TJS 10.84572
TMT 3.5
TND 3.051269
TOP 2.342104
TRY 37.993904
TTD 6.749683
TWD 33.177504
TZS 2690.000335
UAH 41.00191
UGX 3642.391584
UYU 42.149384
UZS 12873.912081
VES 70.161515
VND 25805
VUV 123.606268
WST 2.823884
XAF 592.401234
XAG 0.033794
XAU 0.000329
XCD 2.70255
XDR 0.736757
XOF 592.438686
XPF 107.728231
YER 245.650363
ZAR 19.124415
ZMK 9001.203587
ZMW 27.620652
ZWL 321.999592
  • RBGPF

    1.0200

    69.02

    +1.48%

  • RYCEF

    -1.5500

    8.25

    -18.79%

  • SCS

    -0.0600

    10.68

    -0.56%

  • NGG

    -3.4600

    65.93

    -5.25%

  • BTI

    -2.0600

    39.86

    -5.17%

  • BCC

    0.8100

    95.44

    +0.85%

  • CMSC

    0.0300

    22.29

    +0.13%

  • GSK

    -2.4800

    36.53

    -6.79%

  • VOD

    -0.8700

    8.5

    -10.24%

  • RIO

    -3.7600

    54.67

    -6.88%

  • RELX

    -3.2800

    48.16

    -6.81%

  • BCE

    0.0500

    22.71

    +0.22%

  • CMSD

    0.1600

    22.83

    +0.7%

  • AZN

    -5.4600

    68.46

    -7.98%

  • JRI

    -0.8600

    11.96

    -7.19%

  • BP

    -2.9600

    28.38

    -10.43%


Iran's Ayatollahs the next to Fall?




Following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the ascent of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to power, questions are emerging about the broader regional impact of this seismic shift. One of the most debated scenarios is whether Iran—long an influential player in Syria—could soon face its own regime-shaking upheaval. Could the Islamic Republic’s Ayatollah be next in line to lose his grip on power?

Iran’s Deep Involvement in Syria
Iran has been a steadfast supporter of the former Assad government, providing military advisors, financing, and strategic counsel. For years, Iranian-backed militias played a critical role in propping up the Syrian regime against a multitude of opposition forces. With Assad’s fall, Tehran finds itself facing a new power structure in Damascus—one led by a group previously hostile to both the regime and its foreign backers.

Reduced Regional Influence
The loss of Assad may weaken Iran’s leverage in the Levant, limiting its ability to exert pressure on neighboring countries. A more extremist government in Damascus could seek to push out or marginalize Iranian influence to consolidate its own standing.

Strategic Setback
Iran’s “Shia Crescent” strategy, which sought to create a corridor of allied governments stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, appears severely compromised. This setback may embolden Iran’s adversaries at home and abroad, fueling the notion that Tehran’s regime could be similarly vulnerable.

Domestic Pressures in Iran
Even before events in Syria escalated, Iran’s leadership faced growing internal discontent. Public frustration with economic hardships, alleged corruption, and strict social controls has been an undercurrent for years, occasionally erupting into protests.

Economic Challenges
International sanctions have strained Iran’s economy. Unemployment and inflation add to widespread dissatisfaction, weakening the regime’s domestic legitimacy.

Protest Movements
Periodic demonstrations, sometimes met with harsh crackdowns, reveal a restive population demanding reforms. Younger Iranians, especially urban and educated demographics, often use social media to organize protests and call for greater freedoms.

Leadership Questions
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s advanced age has sparked debates about succession. Hardline factions and moderate reformists remain divided, raising the possibility of political instability if the supreme leader’s authority wavers.

Could HTS’s Victory Inspire Iranian Opposition?
The question many observers are asking: if a once-fringe, hardline group like HTS can topple a long-entrenched regime in Syria, might Iran’s leadership be more vulnerable than it appears?

Symbolic Resonance
Zhe collapse of Assad—a key ally—damages Tehran’s image of regional ascendancy. Opposition groups in Iran may see HTS’s triumph as a sign that even the most entrenched regimes can crumble under the right conditions.

Geopolitical Shifts
Regional players opposed to Iran’s influence may feel emboldened and offer covert support to Iranian dissidents. A shift in Damascus could reduce Tehran’s ability to move personnel, weapons, or resources across Syria, weakening its strategic depth.

Counterarguments: Why Iran May Weather the Storm
Despite these challenges, it is far from certain that Iran’s leadership is on the brink. The Islamic Republic has shown resilience over four decades, surviving international sanctions, internal protests, and regional conflicts.

Security Apparatus
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains a potent force, adept at suppressing unrest. A widespread intelligence network monitors opposition activities, often preventing them from gaining traction.

Ideological Cohesion
Many Iranians still identify with the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary ideals. The regime’s ability to rally nationalist sentiment, especially in times of perceived foreign threats, should not be underestimated.

Lack of a Unified Opposition
Multiple opposition groups inside and outside Iran remain fractured, lacking a coherent leadership to mount a credible challenge. HTS’s ascension in Syria may not easily translate into a similar movement within Iran.

Conclusion: A Cautious Outlook
While the unexpected rise of HTS in Syria has undoubtedly rattled long-standing alliances, it is premature to conclude that Iran’s Ayatollah is next in line to lose power. Tehran’s regime, though facing economic challenges and public dissent, still possesses formidable tools of control and a legacy of resilience.

Yet the region’s shifting geopolitics, coupled with growing discontent at home, suggests that Iran’s leadership must navigate increasingly turbulent waters. If the aftermath of Syria’s transformation continues to erode Tehran’s regional standing, domestic opposition could be emboldened—setting the stage for potential change. Whether that will translate into a full-scale power shift remains uncertain, but the seeds of doubt are undeniably taking root.